Spiraling malnutrition rates and costs of energy in the face of Sri Lanka’s drought

By Amenthi Jasinghe-Dabare

The ten-month long drought in Sri Lanka has affected 1.8 million people across the south, east, north and central and north western regions of the country. These provinces are also amongst the poorest or most vulnerable populations in the island with agriculture and fisheries as traditional, primary livelihoods. Despite the upscaling of drought relief efforts by the National Disaster Management Center and other private and non-governmental agencies, the Central Bank remains optimistic of economic growth for the remainder of the year. The first and second quarters of 2014 showed positive growth, regardless of the prevailing drought conditions. Sri Lanka may have reaped the benefits of a strong yala season at the end of 2012 and an equally successful maha season in 2013 but the effects of this current climate might only be felt in the ensuing quarters of 2014. Rain remains elusive, distant and unyielding to the supplications of those who depend on it.

The Sri Lanka Government has not scaled down growth forecasts for the remainder of the year despite this dry trend. Short rises in the Consumer Price Index in July could be an early warning of things to come. In some areas the harsh reality of this dry period has hit home. The Ministry of Economic Development in a joint assessment reveals that 24% of those affected by drought are experiencing a high debt burden. Notably, paddy farmers account for 27% of this debt burdened total. On average paddy farmers lost 67% of their expected income in 2013/2014. 

The unpredictability of the severity of drought often leads to more severe, sometimes irreversible socio-economic issues. Apart from rising costs of food and energy; other more acute issues are likely to arise from the lack of rain. A growing concern in Sri Lanka is the prevalence of acute malnutrition (wasting) among young children which is currently 14%, a figure that is on the ebb of the critical point. One in five children have low birth-weights; a trend that continues as children grow with 29% of children under five reported as being underweight. This rate increases up to as high as 37.4% in parts of the country that are more disadvantaged. A majority of these disadvantaged areas are currently experiencing drought and are at great risk of food insecurity. Agriculture activities in these areas provide for household consumption as well; but two seasons of crop losses have left 38% of households moderately food insecure. If rain does not fall soon, this population will be forced into severe food shortages and even more tragic levels of acute malnutrition. The debt burden on the agriculture sector in particular may hinder the secondary Yala planting season to come in October. This compounding effect will impact the country as a whole as food prices will very likely spike in reflex to the lack of rice.    

Another spiraling issue is the impact drought has on hydropower generation.  When Sri Lanka experienced drought in 2012 the government spent in excess of $2 billion to import furnace fuel to compensate for the loss of hydropower generation capacity. Even though coal power generation has increased from 15% to over 30% from 2013 to 2014, Sri Lanka’s dependency on hydropower remains high as the demand for electricity has risen dramatically. Sri Lanka’s rate of electrification has risen from 70% to 94% between 2005 and 2013.  The government looks to increase this rate to 100% soon. Furthermore, household consumption levels are equal to industrial consumption which is at 40%; this puts a huge stress on the resources available to sustain this level of consumption. Even though thermal energy has contributed to sustaining Sri Lanka’s growing energy demand, the cost of thermal energy and the environmental impact it causes is likely to damage Sri Lanka’s fragile climate in the long term unless steps to minimize impacts are taken now. Hydropower generated electricity will therefore not diminish completely as sustaining the high costs of thermal energy is likely to press the government to take smaller steps in increasing the rate of thermal energy. Remaining dependent on hydropower, green friendly as it is, will affect the cost of efficiency at a larger scale, given the erratic behavior of rainfall in Sri Lanka. The government bears much of the energy cost borne by all consumers with gazettes in force providing subsidies to the county’s larger export manufacturing industries. Some of the energy burden has been passed to private consumers who are buckling under the pressure of high rates of utilities whereas household income has remained unchanged. Drought is likely to increase the burden of utility costs (particularly for water and electricity) on households as the effect of putting trade industries into an imbalance may have far more detrimental effects on Sri Lanka’s economy if subsidies are revoked.    

So what are the solutions, what are the lessons? The government has released $10 million to fill the temporary void in income to the worst drought affected populations. The call however is for more sustainable mitigation efforts. Cyclically, Sri Lanka has been experiencing acute flooding and then acute drought every two years. Agriculturally, there are several options to consider, the most obvious remain crop diversification which is the planting of crops that require little water or can depend on drip irrigation. However, to plant more crops some capital must exist and farmers are reluctant to plant unfamiliar, non-traditional crops.

It might be prudent to set down two overarching goals that are intrinsically interlinked in searching for durable solutions; combatting food insecurity including curbing spiraling debt and reducing acute malnutrition among children. While on the energy platform; reducing costs of energy that includes the introduction of renewable energy sources and diversifying energy savings toward a greener environment. These goals need to be supported by policy derivatives that look to invest in, build and nurture efficient solutions to the energy and food crisis caused by drought and intermittent dry spells.

A broader view is needed in the provision of energy; wind power and solar energy are potential energy solutions that are available, durable and environmentally safe and can power smaller, less energy consuming parts of the country. Consecutively policy can afford those who opt for renewable energy solutions to obtain incentives and rebates for contributing toward the country’s green efficiency. Policy must also uphold the same incentive or disincentive to subsidized manufacturing industries that save or exploit energy.

Similarly state, private and institutional agrarian, health and nutrition services must collaboratively target the food insecurity and acute malnutrition epidemic from becoming a cyclical challenge. Understanding the evolving and deadly trends of climate change is not simply the responsibility of environment ministries and entities when the impacts are severely felt by almost 2 million of the populace. Solutions do not lie in providing food rations and food stamps alone; solutions such as the provision of buy back guarantees for rural, vulnerable farming groups by the government and private institutions. Marketing support and assistance in diversified value chain development for rural farmers to avail fears of planting drought resistant crops. Greater monitoring of acute malnutrition hotspots in the country with targeted mitigation efforts to combat the severity of the issue is vital. Both rural and urban awareness raising campaigns are crucial for cultural norms and traditional practices pertaining to nutrition to be challenged in order to build a healthier children and youth population.

The current drought is likely to worsen with prolonged and deepening impacts if a collective onus to respond is not addressed. Looking up to the heavens and tracking the course of the wind is unlikely to absolve the burdens of those in desperate and dire need.