Money and Happiness

A SURVEY of 43 countries published on October 30th by the Pew Research Centre of Washington, DC, shows that people in emerging markets are within a whisker of expressing the same level of satisfaction with their lot as people in rich countries. The Pew poll asks respondents to measure, on a scale from zero to ten, how good their lives are. (Those who say between seven and ten are counted as happy.) In 2007, 57% of respondents in rich countries put themselves in the top four tiers; in emerging markets the share was 33%; in poor countries only 16%—a classic expression of the standard view that richer people are more likely to be happy. But in 2014, 54% of rich-country respondents counted themselves as happy, whereas in emerging markets the percentage jumped to 51%.

The convergence happened thanks to huge improvements in countries such as Indonesia (+35) and Pakistan (+22). In 12 of the 24 emerging markets, half or more people rate their life satisfaction in the top tiers of the ladder. The link between income and satisfaction has not been snapped. Poor countries still lag behind: only a quarter of the people there are in the happy tiers. There is a clear connection between income growth (as opposed to income levels) and happiness. And within countries, richer people express more satisfaction than their poorer neighbours. But the relationship between money and contentment is more complex than it once seemed.

[Source: The Economist]

Female Labor Force Participation:  Black Clouds that Keep Women at Home

By Marian Fernando

Soft but Able: Female Labor in the Globe

Female labor force participation (FLFP) is crucial for the growth of an economy. Numerous studies across the world suggest that the increase of FLFP results in increased growth to varying degrees (Kabeer and Luisa Natali, 2013). Modeling panel data from sixteen Indian states from 1961 to 1991,Esteve-Volart (2004) estimates that by increasing the female-to-male ratio of total workers by 1%, the per capita total output can be increased by 0.8%.  In addition, various other studies highlight the positive impact of female education on the per capita annual GDP growth (Kabeer and Luisa Natali, 2013). Brummet uses data from 72 countries, both developed and developing countries, to underscore this phenomena (cited in Kabeer and Luisa Natali, 2013). Analyzing data on five year averages from 1960 to 1990, Knowels et al. (2002) estimate that 1% increase in female education can result in 0.37% increase in GDP per worker. Hence, evidence suggest that educated female labor force is a potential asset for economic growth.  

High yet Low: Dilemma of Female Labor in Sri Lanka

Despite the high levels of human capital accumulation indicated in the human development enjoyed by Sri Lankan women, their labor force participation remains low, making the country unable to harness female labor productivity in the economic growth. In year 2012, the female literacy rate was 94. 6 which is almost at par with the rate that of men: 96.8. Sri Lankan women outperform their male counterparts in mean years of schooling by 1.3 years and beats the South Asian average for women by 7.2 years (UNDP 2013). In addition, out of total undergraduate enrollments, 62 % are females whereas only 38% are malesbetween 2011 and 2012 (Department of Census and Statistics 2013).

In stark contrast, FLFP remains considerably low at 35.6% as opposed to 74.9 % labor force participation of men as of 2012 (Department of Census and Statistics 2013).Adding to the severity, the educated women are more unemployed than the uneducated women indicating a serious loss of human capital and growth capacity in the economy (Chowdhury 2013). Therefore, struggling its way towards economic growth, it is of vital importance to examine the lost female labor force participation in the Sri Lankan economy.This paper will thus analyze the causes of low female labor force participation in Sri Lanka, and thereby propose implications for future action.

Why Worry Us Sri Lankans?

As a result of the low LFP of women, especially the ones who are educated, investments in human capital are wasted. As of 2002, government spent LKR 66,000 per undergraduate, LKR 7,500 per high school student, and LKR 6,500 per primary student (The World Bank 2005). In 2003 , 7,143 female students had enrolled at university, making the ruling government spend approximately LKR 470 million per year (calculated based on  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2010). These statistics, though older, provides an understanding about the magnitude of government spending on free education. By quitting or never entering the labor force, the money spent on educating such women become a lost investment, except for the positive externalities of female education-better health care of family, and social wellbeingthat might indirectly increase growth.

By leaving or not entering into the labor force, women also reduce the skilled, semi-skilled and skilled labor availability in the economy, and in turn prevents the economy from reaping the productivity of that lost labor. Examining the causes of FLFP becomes imperative in this regard.

Black Clouds that Keep Women at Home

This paper identifies three causes of low FLFP: (1) marriage and familial responsibilities, (2) wage disparities, and (3) the skill gap. While the former becomes the defining factor of FLFP, latter two might explain some forms of FLFP.

(1)   Marriage and Familial Responsibilities

Responsibilities attached to marital life including child bearing and rearing, and household chores seem to be the biggest barrier for FLFP in Sri Lanka. Majority of the economically inactive female population is married and unsurprisingly is involved in house work. According to 2007 disaggregated data, only 35.73% of married women between 15 and 60 years were in the labor force. Out of the 64.27% of economically inactive population of this age group an overwhelming 95.8% were involved in house work whereas only 0.4% were studying full time and 3.77% were too old to work. In contrast, more women in the never married category are involved in the labor force in working age female population. While 45.71% of never married women are in the labor force, more than 39% of economically inactive population are full time students as expected. Thus, only a thin layer of never married women, namely 12.35% are actually kept home with household work. In this regard, it is evident that responsibilities brought along with marriage seem to take women away from contributing to the Sri Lankan formal economy with their labor and human capital (Chowdhury 2013).

In addition, the data from 2007 shows that women with less family support such as divorced, separated and widowed women are more likely to engage in the labor force (Chowdhury 2013). Therefore, this explains that women are capable in managing both work and family if they are provided with incentives. A widowed woman is forced to earn money in the absence of her husband, so she works and manages her family at the same time. Though negative, she has an incentive to work. The latter part of this paper will discuss such positive incentives that could re-direct women into the labor force.

(2)   Wage Disparities

While gender inequalities in wage might not explain the low FLFP to a greater extent, it is worth understanding the dynamics behind the scene. A person with high human capital would not be satisfied with a lower pay that does not suit his or her skills and qualifications. This might explain why FLFP is low despite the higher levels of female undergraduates that Sri Lanka produces each year.

Data shows that public sector is more equal in wage premiums offered to males and female than severe inequalities existing in the semi-government and private sectors. The percentage difference between male and female earnings in the public sector from 2006 to 2009 has remained at less than 1%, whereas this value isas high as 30% in the semi-government sector in years 2008 and 2009. This difference in private sector has varied between 33% and 36% during the same period (Chowdhury 2013).

One should also keep in mind that cheap labor is conducive for labor- intensive export economy and will attract investment. Nonetheless women should not be at the receiving end of this economic benefit of cheap labor. It is rather the allocation of labor force which creates a gender segregation of occupations that should be addressed to decrease the wage gap. In Sri Lanka women are limited to female occupations “such as teaching, semi-skilled and unskilled production work- mostly in garment industries, and domestic service” (Ruwanpura 2004). Providing a good model to alleviate wage disparities and encourage FLFP, in 1999, Tzannatosestimated, using data from 11 Latin American and Carribbean countries, that 50% female wage increase can be obtained without significantly damaging the wages of males by “reallocations of the labor force to eliminate the gender segregation of occupations” in which women are loaded into low-paid jobs (Kabeer and Luisa Natali, 2013). Thus, the wage disparities that might discourage women from being in the labor force should be systematically addressed.

(3)   Skill Gap

Despite the higher levels of human capital indicated in the education achievements of women, there seem to be a skill gap between men and women in the country. As per the Step Skills Measurement Survey administered to men and women between 15 and 64 years in 2012 in Sri Lanka, men surpass women, at least slightly in some aspects, in cognitive and non-cognitive skills, with the exception of “decision making and agreeableness”. At the same time men use their skills more than women and are confident of their skills. Men on the average have more work experience than women which also put them in greater advantage (Chowdhury 2013).

Due to this skill gap, women might have less opportunities in the labor force in spite of their higher educational achievements which might explain the low FLFP to certain extent.

Umbrellas to Get to Work

Implications for future action to boost economic growth through increased FLFP are multi-stakeholder in nature. Policies should be created to allow flexible working hours for women, to provide necessary transport for late hour work, to establish well-established day care centers at public and private office spaces equipped with well-trained care givers, and to provide more support base for women, especially mothers. Private and public sector employers should be motivated to follow the policies and create a mother-friendly environment at work. Although difficult, policies to re-allocate resources to diminish occupational segregation should be pursued and wage gaps should thus be reduced. Women should be self-motivated to increase their skill levels to match the market needs. All in all, creating and improving existing economic opportunities to suit the socio-cultural requirements of women and motivating women through media, secondary and tertiary educationcan be pursued to improve the FLFP and thus strengthen the economic growth of the country.

Reference

Central Bank of Sri Lanka (2010). “Economic and Social Statistics of Sri Lanka 2010.” XXXII

Chowdhury, A.R. (2013) “South Asia Human Development Sector Low Female Labor-Force Participation in Sri Lanka: Contributory Factors, Challenges and Policy Implications. World Bank Discussion Paper Series 68, World Bank.

Department of Census and Statistics (2013). Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey: Annual Bulletine.

Esteve-Volart, B. (2004) “Gender Discrimination and Growth: Theory and Evidence from India”. DEDPS Working Paper 42, London: London School of Economics and Political Science.

Kabeeer, N. and Luisa Natali (2013). “Gender Equality and Economic Growth: Is there a Win-Win?” IDS Working Paper 417, Institute of Devleopment Studies and Pathways of Women’s Empowerment.

Knowles, S., Lorgelly, P. K. and Owen, P. D. (2002) “Are Educational Gender Gaps a Brake on Economic Development? Some Cross-country Empirical Evidence.” Oxford Economic Papers 54.1: 118-49

Ruwanpura, K. (2004) “Quality of Women’s Employment: A  Focus on the South” International Institute for Labor Studies.

The World Bank (2005). “Treasures of theEducation System in Sri Lanka:Restoring Performance, Expanding Opportunities and Enhancing Prospects.” The World Bank Colombo Office.

UNDP. (2013) Human Development Report 2013: Explanatory Note on 2013 HDR Composite Indices.

Democracy and Development

By Madhubhashini R. Rathnayaka

“The more well to do a nation the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy” says Seymour Martin Lipset

According to Rutsow, writings of American sociologists and political scientists favor three types of explanation of Democracy. One of these, proposed by Seymour Martin Lipset, Philips Cutright and others, connects stable democracy with certain economic and social background conditions, such as high per capita income, widespread literacy, and prevalent urban residence. A second type of explanation dwells on the need for certain beliefs or psychological attitudes among the citizens. A long line of authors from Walter Bagehot to Ernest Barker has stressed the need for consensus as the basis of democracy either in the form of a common belief in certain fundamentals or of procedural consensus on the rules of the game, which Barker calls "the Agreement to Differ.[1]Understanding the core idea of Lipset’s above mentioned statement will pave the way for deep analysis – hence if it is described further, Lipset moreover has elaborated it as “all the various aspects of economic development—industrialization, urbanization, wealth, and education—are so closely interrelated as to form one major factor which has the political correlate of democracy.”[2]Lipset has deliberately argued more broadly and it is not a simple correlation between per capita income and democracy[3].Depicting the relationship between democracy and development complicated, Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi[4] argue “democracies emerge as a result of economic development or they may be established independently of economic development, but may be more likely to survive in developed countries” In UNESCO Report on Democracy and Development the question is raised “Is democracy a precondition for development?” Considering all these aspects the argument can be summed up as whether democracy leads to development of a country, or whether development leads to democracy?

According to Robert A. Dhal in his book On Democracy “Democracy provides opportunities for 1) effective participation, 2) equality in voting, 3) gaining enlightened understanding, 4) exercising final control [by the people] over the agenda, and 5) inclusion of adults. The political institutions that are necessary to pursue these goals are 1) elected officials, 2) free, fair and frequent elections, 3) freedom of expression,4) alternative sources of information, 5) associational autonomy and 6) inclusive citizenship” [5]

Initially here in this study it will be taken consideration the economic development (Along with Education) with the two sets of democratic and authoritarian countries for easy comparison.[6]The information used is based on World Bank List on Economies – 2011[7] and Democracy Index Unit (DI)-2011[8] of Economic Intelligence Unit. According to DI 25 countries are shown as Full Democratic and from those countries 22 are High Income, while 3 countries are Upper Middle Income according to the World Bank List of Economies. Of 52 Authoritarian countries 19 countries are Low Income, 14 are Upper Middle Income, 12 are Lower Middle Income while 7 are High Income. The analysis shows almost all democratic countries are well to do while as a whole the other countries that do not practice democracy are not highly developed except a few. At the same time from the first 20 countries - under UNDP Human Development Index- 2011 - which are Norway,  Australia, Sweden, Netherlands, Iceland, Ireland, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Slovenia, Finland, Canada, Chzech Republic, Austria, Belgium, France, Spain, Luxembourg, United Kingdom and Slovakia[9] majority is Full Democratic. This shows that not only economic development but high statistic of life expectancy, education, and income indices (which are used to rank the Human Development Index) are visible in these countries.

According to DI thatin some 40 countries there has been deterioration in scores for media freedom since 2008. This has included three countries in Western Europe (France, Italy, Turkey), eight in eastern Europe (Albania, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Russia and Serbia), nine in Latin America (Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua and Peru), four in the Middle East and North Africa (Iran, Egypt, Palestinian Territories and Saudi Arabia), four in Asia and Australasia (Fiji, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Thailand), and eight in Sub-Saharan Africa (Angola, Burundi,Cameroon, Congo Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar and Rwanda). Thus the list of above mentioned countries reflect of a majority as developing and/or with situations of Authoritarian, Flawed Democracy and Hybrid.

The reasons for this outcome have been pointed out as underlying negative trends were exacerbated by the 2008-09 global economic crisis. Many governments have felt increasingly vulnerable and threatened and have reacted by intensifying their efforts to control the media and impede free expression. Increasing unemployment and job insecurity have fostered a climate of fear and self-censorship among journalists in many countries. The concentration of media ownership has tended to increase, which has had a negative impact on the diversity of views and the freedom of expression. Advanced nations have become more inward-looking and hence less interested and capable of monitoring and pressurizing emerging market governments to ensure freedom of the press. In authoritarian regimes, which have often become stronger and more confident, state control and repression of any independent media is a given and has if anything tended to get worse, with increasing attacks on independent journalists.[10]

And according to Rostow by 1960 it was not unreasonable for men to question whether democracy was to be the natural outcome of modernization in twentieth century. And to this result the endemic failure to make democracy work in the developing regions has contributed[11]At the same time Hertzen argues before the Reformation, democracy was unknown in Europe (and the rest of the world), apart from a few free cities and isolated farmer republics. Religious emancipation, Enlightenment ideas and the precedents of Antiquity, paved the way for democratic development, culminating with the American Revolution – actually an evolution. The French revolution was a disseminator of democratic impulses, but it also drove them off course. World War I was the harbinger of a deep crisis. Successive totalitarian regimes put the democracies under severe pressure but, despite an impressive display of power, they fell into their own trap; the all-out commitment of the United States turned the tables.[12]

Here in this study it is going to pay attention on countries which do and do not practice democracy in the present world; and how their political behavior links with the development with reference to Lipset’s interpretation of development.

Norway which has ranked as 1 in Democracy Index Unit (DIU) has of 427.1 $ billion Per capita Gross National Income in 2010 according to World Bank Development Indicators 2012and its Gross National Income Rank is 24. United States which is ranked as 1 by World Bank with14,645.6 $ billion Per capita Gross National Income is ranked by DIU as 19 in regarding democracy practice. Gambia which is ranked as 198 (the last) in Gross National Income with 0.8 $ billion Per capita Gross national income is ranked as 132 by DIU. The Gross National Income of North Korea is estimated as low income in the World Bank Development Indicators, which has been ranked as 167 (the last) in DIU. In view of that the two countries Norway which is top in Democracy has a high Gross National Income, while United States which is top in Gross National Income is Democratic- but the situation becomes opposite in relation to Gambia and North Korea.

Norway has hereditary constitutional monarchy government. Until the 1981 election, Norway had been governed by majority Labor Party governments since 1935, except for three periods (1963, 1965-71, and 1972-73) and from 1981 to 2005, governments alternated between Labor minority governments and Conservative-led coalition governments.[13] Stein Ringen mentionsNorway has a democratic tradition that goes back to 1814, when the then radical constitution that still prevails (with modifications) was adopted.[14]The nation state has provided the framework for three modern political projects: theconstitutional state, democracy and the welfare state and Oil wealth has made it easier to sustain both its commitment to participation in the international arena and its national welfare schemes[15]The Norwegian economy is a prosperous mixed economy, with a vibrant private sector, a large state sector, and an extensive social safety net. The government controls key areas, such as the vital petroleum sector, through extensive regulation and large-scale state-majority-owned enterprises.[16]

Before the independence from Denmark in 1814 the Norwegian economy was traditionally based on local farming communities combined with other types of industry, basically fishing, hunting, wood and timber along with a domestic and international-trading merchant fleet. After the Norwegian spesidaler gained its par value to silver in 1842, Norway saw a period of significant economic growth up to the mid 1870s.[17]Independence in 1905 (from Sweden –Writer) coincided with the advent of rapid industrialization.[18]Officially Norway was neutral during World War I. However, in terms of the economy, the government clearly took the side of the British and their allies. From 1917, when Germany declared war against non-friendly vessels, Norway took heavy losses. After the war the challenge was to reconstruct the economy and re-establish political and economic order. The Labor Party, in office from 1935, grabbed the opportunity to establish a strict social democratic rule, with a growing public sector and widespread centralized economic planning.[19] Considering oil resource, Norway's emergence as a major oil and gas producer in the mid-1970s transformed the economy. Large sums of investment capital poured into the offshore oil sector, leading to greater increases in Norwegian production costs and wages than in the rest of Western Europe up to the time of the global recovery of the mid-1980s[20] and Norway is the world's second-largest gas exporter; and seventh largest oil exporter.

Considering democracy, Norway has proved fertile ground for democracy. That is explained by historical factors, by a rather remarkable experience of progress that followed in the wake of independence, and by solidity of public policy decision-making and Norway is today a highly egalitarian society, but egalitarianism is not, as is often believed, a recent product of the welfare state. It is rather the country’s historical inheritance and a legacy that was not created but maintained by the welfare state.[21]On the contrary Raymound Guesn argues “ ‘Democracy’ as s self-conscious, theoretically articulated and defended, positively valuated political ideal associated with a political movement , is an invention of the very late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries” and moreover he states that, though there were early Greek experiments in democracy and also form of government practiced in some of Swiss cantons there was no real continuity between any of these experiments and any concrete feature of the modern world.

If it is considered aboutthe7 Authoritarian countries which are underHighly Developed category;Saudi Arabia, Equatorial Guinea, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Baharain and Kuwait of which economies are majorly backed by oil and natural gas industry. On the other hand 13 countries out of 25 which are categorized as full democracies own proven oil reserves- all of them are high income countries. In this narrow analysis it is visible that “black gold” has become a factor that decides the economic development of the countries, no matter the political systems operated. But once democratic system is practiced in these countries as they are wealthy, it supports the prevalence of the system.

But there are some other factors like historic political behavior of the countries that fertile the prevalence of democracy. When considering the historical emergence of modern democratic regimes according to Huntigton it falls into four phases. What could reasonably called a democratic political system at the national level of government first appeared in the Unites States in the early nineteenth century. During the following century democratic regimes gradually emerged in Northern and Western Europe in the British dominions, and in a few countries in Latin America.Virtually all significant regime changes were from less democracy to more democracy.[22] In the meantime Lipset points out that the wealthiest countries like United States and Canada were with the nonexistence experience of socialist parties and other wealthiest countries like New Zealand,Switzerland, Sweden, United Kingdom, Denmark, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands moderate socialism predominates as the form of leftist politics. In none of these countries did the Communists secure more than higher percentage of votes.[23]But the historical behavior and factors of the countries decide their direction to democracy and non-democracy. According to Rostow on the eve of first World War the English-Speaking world, France, Scandinavia and Germany evolved with the direction that parliamentary democracy was the natural with Japan and Russia, Vast China and the colonial countries, but the situation was changed with the first World War and aftermaths.[24]

As it has been discussed about Norway which is Full Democratic and a High Income Country, thus it has to be compared with another in which Full Democracy is not practiced, but a method like Authoritarianism is practiced. China can be considered as an ideal example for this. Over the last century, the Chinese people have experienced three historic changes on its way forward. The first stage was marked by the 1911 revolution, which overthrew the autocratic monarchy that had ruled China for thousands of years. The second stage came with the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, and the third with reform, an opening up and a bid to achieve socialist modernization. And Ever since Deng Xiaoping opened up China’s economy more than 25 years ago, inaugurating an era of blistering growth, many in the West have assumed that political reform would follow. Economic liberalization, it was predicted, would lead to political liberalization and, eventually, democracy.[25] But as predicted, political liberalization did not come into visible in China. The country has learnt from the lapses of Soviet Union and as a result of that economic freedom was grated in high level but oppressing the political opponents.[26] In the chart no 3 extracted from his article Does Economic Success Require Democracy?[27]it has been shown how the politically repressed countries surpass the economic growth of politically free countries. At the same time he mentions unfree China had a growth rate of 9.5 percent from 2001 to 2005.

Unlike many transition economies in the former Soviet bloc, the Chinese economy had better economic fundamentals (absence of a monetary overhang, high savings rates, a young and relatively well-educated and healthy labor force, a relatively small socialist state and a flexible central-local political structure conducive to local initiatives). The combination of enlightened government policy and lure of the huge potential market also attracted enormous foreign direct investment, mostly from the Chinese Diaspora.[28] According to Hassett that the un-free governments now understand that they have to provide a good economy to keep citizens happy and they understand that free-market econ­omies work best.[29] But then arises another question does only good economy keeps the citizens happy? Once other factors like freedom of expression, equality, free and fair elections, human rights etc. are violated and corruption reigns do they enjoy the real life? But countries like China always tend to control people via many ways to keep them bounded. As part of China’s political institutions, information and mind control has been conducted for more than half century since Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took power in 1949. While the information control means, through personnel control of editors and reporters, all media in China; the mind control includes indoctrination from kindergarten to college through officially compiled textbooks, as all teachers are categorized as “educators of CCP”. Therefore, it is not simply motives of some officials but the system itself that imposes and enforces information and mind control.

I would like to point out first that, when the countries face with economic mishaps, maintaining democracy becomes difficult, for an example media freedom which is an essential factor of democracy is oppressed in countries, and the background factors shown for it are mainly related to economic mishaps faced by the governments in the respective countries. Some of the top listed countries under Flawed Economies in DI which are Cape Verde , Portugal, South Africa, France, Slovenia, Italy, Greece, Botswana, Estonia, Chile, Israel, Taiwan, Slovakia , India , Cyprus , Lithuania , Timor-Leste, Trinidad and Tobago including Sri Lanka it reflects that most of these countries were colonized by the Western world and directed towards the practice of democracy, the countries have been facing with economic crisis, civil wars, invasions in recent history and much more problematic situations. Thus struggling to overcome these problems finding short and effective solutions no matter democratic approach or any other these countries have flaws in democracy- which does not mean that they are not good in governance. Sometimes the case becomes when the democratic methods of other countries are implanted in foreign soil without adaptation it also become a fail, but if we consider a country like Japan which also has the country’s roots in the ruling system, that has become successful in both practice of democracy and economic development.

Bibliography

EH.net, Economic Histroy of Norway Retrieved from http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/grytten.norway

Democracy Index Unit, Democracy Index- 2011

Dhal, A  (16^th Dec 2012) On Democracy Retrieved from http://www.newschool.edu/uploadedFiles/TCDS/Democracy_and_Diversity_Institutes/Dahl_%20On%20Democracy.pdf

Lipset, Seymour (16^th Dec 2012) Some Social Requisites of Democracy : Economic Development and Political Legitimacy, Retrieved from (Stable URL) http://www.jstor.org/stable/1951731 

Minxin Pei, Carnegie Economic Institutions, Democracy, and Development,  World Bank Conference on Democracy, Market Economy, and Development, February 1999  Retrieved from <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/1999/02/26/economic-institutions-democracy-and-development/3i9>

Przeworski, Adam and Limongi, Modernization: Theories and Facts, Retrieved fromhttp://dss.ucsd.edu/~mnaoi/page4/POLI227/files/page1_13.pdf

Rustow, Dankwart (16^th Dec 2012) A Comparative Politics -Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic ModelRetrieved from http://dcpis.upf.edu/~raimundo-viejo/docencia/pehe/pdfstransiciones/Rustow_1970.pdf

Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Volume 6, No. 2: 43-55 <http://www.tfd.org.tw/docs/dj0602/043-056%20Stein%20Ringen.pdf>

http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/grytten.norway

UNDP Human Development Index 2011 Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2011_EN_Complete.pdf

World Bank List on Economies – 2011

Wucherpfennig, Julian Modernization and Democracy: Theories and Evidence Revisited

Østerud, Øyvind, The Norwegian Study on Power and Democracy Retrieved from <http://www.oecd.org/futures/33800474.pdf>

Central International Agency (CIA) the World Fact Book Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/no.html

                           

---

[1]Rustow, Dankwart (16^th Dec 2012)  A Comparative Politics -Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic ModelRetrieved from <http://dcpis.upf.edu/~raimundo-viejo/docencia/pehe/pdfstransiciones/Rustow_1970.pdf>

[2]Lipset, Seymour (16^th Dec 2012) Some Social Requisites of Democracy : Economic Development and Political Legitimacy, Retrieved from (Stable URL) http://www.jstor.org/stable/1951731 

[3]Wucherpfennig, Julian Modernization and Democracy: Theories and Evidence Revisited, Retrieved from

[4]Przeworski, Adam and Limongi, Modernization: Theories and Facts, Retrieved fromhttp://dss.ucsd.edu/~mnaoi/page4/POLI227/files/page1_13.pdf

[5]Dhal, A  (16^th Dec 2012) On Democracy Retrieved from http://www.newschool.edu/uploadedFiles/TCDS/Democracy_and_Diversity_Institutes/Dahl_%20On%20Democracy.pdf

[6] Annexure 1

[7]World Bank List on Economies – 2011

[8]Democracy Index Unit, Democracy Index- 2011

[9] UNDP Human Development Index 2011 Retrieved from <http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2011_EN_Complete.pdf>

[10]Democracy Index Unit, Democracy Index- 2011

[11] Rotsow,W,W, 1971, Politics and the Stages of Growth, Cambridge University Press

[12]Hertzen, Gustav, The Challenge of Democracy p. 53 Retrieved from http://gustavhertzen.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/the-challenge-of-democracy_net-2.pdf

[13]US Department of States (30^th Dec 2012) Background Note: Norway Retrieved fromhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3421.htm

[14]Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Volume 6, No. 2: 43-55 Retrieved from <http://www.tfd.org.tw/docs/dj0602/043-056%20Stein%20Ringen.pdf>

[15]Østerud, Øyvind, The Norwegian Study on Power and Democracy  Retried from <http://www.oecd.org/futures/33800474.pdf>

[16] Central International Agency (CIA) the World Fact Book Retrieved from <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/no.html>

[17]EH.net, Economic Histroy of Norway Retrieved from http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/grytten.norway

[18]Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Volume 6, No. 2: 43-55 <http://www.tfd.org.tw/docs/dj0602/043-056%20Stein%20Ringen.pdf>

[19] http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/grytten.norway                                                                                       

[20]<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3421.htm>

[21]<http://www.tfd.org.tw/docs/dj0602/043-056%20Stein%20Ringen.pdf>

[22]The Interaction Between Democracy and Development UNESCO publication

[23]Lipset, Seymour, Political Man Retrieved from www.archive.org

[24]Rotsow, p. 267

[25]Bueno, Bruce , Development and Democracy Retrieved from http://www.hoover.org

[26]Hassett, Kevin, Does Economic Success Require Democracy, Retrived from http://www.american.com

[27]ibid

[28],Minxin Pei, Carnegie Economic Institutions, Democracy, and Development,  World Bank Conference on Democracy, Market Economy, and Development, February 1999  Retrieved from <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/1999/02/26/economic-institutions-democracy-and-development/3i9>

[29]http://www.american.com

Mitigating Traffic Congestion in Colombo City

By Anupama Fernando

Introduction

Transport sector plays a vital role in development process of a country due to the fact that all the economic activities as well as the day today functions of the society depend on the way of satisfying the need of travel and transport. Developed countries as well as the countries with emerging economies have shown good examples on how the transport sector contributes in developing their economies.

In Sri Lanka, transport related infrastructure improvement is one of the major focused areas of the government. However, the attention on transport service improvement is very far behind with compared to the physical infrastructure development. Improvement of existing public transport system or introducing a new transport system could not be done by improving transport related physical infrastructure alone.

At present, the people are shifting from public transport services to private mode to meet their travel demand. This is due to the fact that public transport services are not in accordance with their satisfaction. Under this scenario, private vehicle usage of the country is also rapidly increasing resulting in heavy traffic congestion in urban areas. Emperical studies have shown that with the increase of income level of the people, there is a significanttrend to increase private vehicle ownership if the government does not have a control over the vehicle ownership accordingly. Since, Sri Lanka has also reached to middle income level, private vehicle ownership will also be improved rapidly resulting heavy traffic congestion in Urban areas.

In Colombo Metropolitan Area, Traffic congestion is worsening at present on the road network.  Traffic congestion has brought about huge economic loss by increasing vehicle operating cost as well as travel time cost.

  

Shifting from public transport to private transport: Why?

Existing Bus System

In Sri Lanka, bus transport service has dominated the public transport system although its share is gradually declining. For instance, buses accounted for carrying 65% of passengers crossing the Colombo Metropolitan Council (CMC) boundary in 1985, 57% in 1995, 55% in 2004 and 47% in 2013.

There are many reasons why people are reluctant to use the existing bus system. In the morning peak period buses are over-crowded on the inbound direction on almost all major corridors.  The loadfactors on all the corridors indicate more than 100 percent. In particular on Kandy, Low Level and Horana roads, the load factors are more than 150 percent. In the evening peak period, buses are crowded on all the corridors except SriJayawardenepura Mawatha of which loadfactor was 87 percent. Due to that reason passengers who travel by buses face lot of difficulties. Therefore, they try to seek another transport mode.

Existing Railway System

It is a very clear fact that Railway transportation has also been one of the major aspects of public transportation in Sri Lanka for many decades. However, due to the deteriorating situation of railway infrastructure and rolling stock with the extensive age of it, the railway sector, at present faces many difficulties in providing an efficient, safer and comfortable service to the passengers. Frequent delays in operation, cancellation of schedules and derailments are some of the issues.

It is not totally the fault of the Departmentof Railways, because out of the locomotive fleet 56 percent has more than 30 years’ service life and maintenance has become very difficult. Reliability has gone down and consumption of fuel has also increased due to the old age and old design, thereby increasing operating cost day by day. At present more than 150 passenger coaches have passed 33 years of service life and remaining400 odd coaches have passed 24 years. Furthermore, Sri Lanka Railways (SLR) is unable even to cater for present passenger demand during peak hours due to lack of strengthening the single unit train sets and improving the reliability of signaling system in high traffic density area. Signaling system is also very old and having more than 30years life period frequent defects are encountered frequently and thereby delaying the trains badly due to signal failures.

Absence of Integrated Transport System in Colombo Fort

There available no inter-modal passenger transfer terminal at Colombo Fort Railway Station. Segmentation of public transport terminals and Fort railway station makes transfer difficult between buses and railway for the people. This causes the passengers a great inconvenience for passengers who want to transfer to another mode have to cross the arterialroads around this areaby walking more than 300 meters.

In the case of scattering four passenger terminals in the heart of Pettah in a one square km area, it causes severe vehicle congestion, leaving much inconvenience to passengers. The image of public transport is damaged with poor facilities available at these terminals. There are a number of busroutes using bus terminals and busstops in central area of Colombo. Three bus terminals are operated by different bus regulators and many operators.     

Colombo Central Bus Stand is operated by the SLTB only for the SLTB buses. The National Transport Commission (NTC) operates BastianBus Stand for private inter-provincial buses. The Western Provincial Council also operates Gunasinghapura Bus Stand mainly for a bus pool of intra-provincial buses. Passenger boarding  and  alighting  locations of  the intra-provincial buses  are different by destination and busroute. Roughly 11,000 buses arrive and depart in the Fort-Pettah area (Inter-provincial about 3,300 buses and Intra –Province about 7,500 buses).The number of buses departing from each terminal is roughly 1,00 to 1,200.

Traffic Congestion in Colombo Metropolitan Area

In the absence of a convenient public transport system, it can not satisfy thetravel requirements of the people and they buy private vehicles thinking that it is the ultimate solution to their transport issues. However, the countries, especially those with large populations have not been able to provide sufficient road space to keep up with the demand. Soon the roads get filled up with private vehicles in urban areas where road building is almost impossible. According to the latest estimation in Sri Lanka about Rs. 60-70billion is wasted in terms of fuel, time and accidents annually. That is a significant amount of GDP.

Another factor is increased per capita income level. People have changedtheir travel patterns seeking higher quality transport. This is evident from travel time measurements on the major corridors(Negombo road, Kandy road, Low level Road, Malambe Road, High Level Road, Horana road and Galle road) which show that peak period travel speeds to vary between 13 and 19 km/hour. Thus the mobility of the commercial capital and economic center of Sri Lanka is under pressure due to mounting economic losses arising from traffic congestion.

As a result, the percentage of people using buses and trains as their transport mode has dropped from 74% to 58%during 1958 and 2013. The private mode of transport has increased from 26 percent to 42 percent during the same period. Around 38% of all trips are made by private modes including cars, motorcycles, threewheelers and taxis while approximately 40% of trips are made by bus and railway. There maining 22% of trips are made by non-motorized modes of transport.

However, Last year public sector investments in transport sector was 190 billion rupees (about 3-pct of GDP) while the private sector has spent about 100 billion rupees (about 1.5 percent of GDP) for the transport sector. But most of the investment goes through the construction of expressways and other road construction and very little portion allocated for the public transport improvement compared to the cost of infrastructure development.

Necessity of introduction of  new transit systems without delay

Invthe Colombo Metropolitan Area, 6.9 million annual tripsare made at present and it is estimated that it will grow up to 12.2million trips in 2035. It is estimated that under the current policies the urban traffic congestion in the Colombo Metropolitan area will reach a staggering Rs. 450 billion by 2035.

In the light of the above, it can be said that a mass transit system is needed to meet the increasing travel demand.It should go along with the proper management of transport demand and transport service supply. The need of the quality improvement of the transport services with enhancing safety, efficiency, comfort in supply side and implementation of transport demand management measures is a must in this regard. This can only be done through introducing new transport systems with new technology and improving the integrated transport system for the entire country.

A better transport system can certainly add one or two percent to the GDP easily, which the government is trying hard to do through various other ways. Investment in cutting down waste is a better strategy for developing urban transport.

References

1.      Urban Transport Master Plan,August 2014 - Japan International Cooperation Agency.